Warming 'pause' gives thought for scientists, sceptics

Google – AFP, Richard Ingham (AFP), 24 Sep 2013

Remains of dead trees, due to rising sea levels, are pictured on May 7,

2013, on the beach in northern Senegal (AFP/File, Seyllou)

PARIS — A slowdown in warming that has provided fuel for climate sceptics is one of the thorniest issues in a report to be issued by UN experts on Friday.

Over the past 15 years, the world's average surface temperature rose far slower than many climate models have predicted.

According to projections, global warming should go in lockstep with the ever-rising curve of heat-trapping carbon emissions.

But in recent years, warming has lagged. So, where has the missing heat gone?

For climate sceptics, the answer is clear. Either the computer models used to project temperature rise are flawed, or man-made global warming is just a green scam, they say.

Swedish Environment Minister Lena Ek,

 Thomas Stocker and Dahe Qin of the

 IPCC in Stockholm, Sweden, 

September 23, 2013 (AFP/File,

Bertil Enevag Ericson)

The report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will confirm warming has recently slowed.

The document, being debated line-by-line in Stockholm, is the first volume of a vast trilogy that will be released by the Nobel-winning group over the coming months, and only its fifth overview in a quarter of a century.

Over the past 50 years, the mean global temperature rise was 0.12 degrees Celsius (0.2 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade, slowing to an average 0.05 C (0.09 F) per decade over the past 15 years.

Half of the slowdown could be attributed to volcanic eruptions, whose particles reflect sunlight, and a bigger-than expected drop in heat from the Sun's changing activity cycle, said a summary of the report.

The other half is attributed to a "cooling contribution from internal variability".

Laurent Terray with the French computer modelling agency Cerfacs said the term is used to explain a shift in the way heat is distributed between land, sea and air.

Still unclear is what causes the variation or determines its duration.

"We know that this kind of episode, of a decadal length or thereabouts, can occur once or twice a century," said Terray.

"If it (the present one) continues for two more decades, we may start to think that the computer models are underestimating internal variability."

New research by Britain's Met Office suggests the "missing" heat, or some of it, is being transferred from the ocean surface to the deeps.

Temperatures at depths below 3,000 metres (10,000 feet) have been rising since the 1990s, implying a source of heat-trapping today will contribute to warming tomorrow.

A massive ash clouds rise from the crater

 of the Mount Sinabung volcano during

 a fresh eruption on September 17,

2013 (AFP/File, Ade Sinuhaji)

Governments, which have the right to vet and amend the summary but not the main text on which it is based, are looking with concern at the brief section on the warming pause.

This reflects jitters after the IPCC's last big report in 2007 was shown to contain several background errors, denting the agency's credibility.

The panel's main conclusions were not affected but the mistakes were a windfall for sceptics.

Together with the 2008 financial crisis and the disastrous 2009 Copenhagen UN climate summit, this almost sent global warming into political limbo.

In comments of the IPCC summary draft, China, India and Norway want to know why the section dealing with the warming pause fails to refer to the role of the deep ocean.

Others complain the text is dangerous gobbledegook.

"This is an example of providing a bunch of numbers, then leave them up in the air without a concrete conclusion," says an angry US objection seen by AFP.

"(...) [T]he way it is written, it may set itself up for misleading conclusions."

Some countries take the opposite line.

Hungary says an anomaly that has lasted 15 years -- a blink of an eye on the geological timescale -- is too short and laden with unknowns to even rate a mention.

Illustration: a slowdown in global warming

 has led sceptics to say the theory of

 man-made global warming is a scam

(AFP/File, Giuseppe Cacace)

The controversy touches on the sensitive issue of scientific uncertainty.

To scientists, admitting to uncertainty is not merely honest but entirely legitimate -- something to be acknowledged and debated, to be rejected or overcome.

But admitting to uncertainty is often misunderstood by the outside world and, says Andreas Levermann of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) near Berlin, exploited by sceptics.

"They can't stop physical reality, but they are slowing down" tougher action on carbon emissions, he said in a phone interview.

Alden Meyer, with the US environment group the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), urged the IPCC draft to spell out what is known about the warming pause.

"Otherwise, the denialists will claim that the IPCC's silence on this issue shows that global warming isn't as serious as scientists thought," he said in an email.

"The recent slowdown in temperature increases isn't unprecedented, and should be seen as a 'speed bump' on the way to a warmer world."

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THE RELATIONSHIP TO GAIA - April 2010 (Kryon channelled by Lee Carroll)

New Mini Ice Age

"The weather you have today, and all the alarming attributes of it, is a scenario of what was scheduled to happen on Earth anyway. I review again that the weather changes you are seeing prophesied by myself, 21 years ago, are not a surprise. The changes are not caused by the pollutants you put in the air. You call it global warming and that's a nice phrase, and perhaps that will get you to put less pollutants in the air – a very good thing. But what you are seeing in the weather shift today was not caused by Humans putting things into the air. It would have happened anyway in about 300 years."

"We've called this process the water cycle, since it's all about water, not about air. The water is the predominant attribute of Gaia and of the weather cycle you're seeing. More predominant is the temperature of it. The cycle is ice to water and water to ice, and has been repeated on this planet over and over and over. It is not new. It is not exceptional. It is not frightening. But it's a cycle that modern humanity has not seen before, and it's a long cycle that is beyond the life span of a Human Being. Therefore, it tends to be overlooked or not seen at all !"

"In the days of the Lemurians, the water level of the Pacific Ocean was almost 400 feet lower, and that's only 50,000 years ago. [Kryon invites science to check this out – the water level at that time.] That was a water cycle working, and the reason it was lower was due to so much of the water being stored as ice. Today you're going through another water cycle that will eventually lead to cooling. The last one was in the 1400s."

"Science sees that at about 1650. As mentioned, they are so slow there is no remembrance that a Human has of them except in past writings and in the rings of the trees. The time span of the changes is so great that environmental record keeping does not exist in the form that it does today. But you can still look at the rings of the trees and at the striations of the rocks and can generally figure out that a few hundred years ago, you had a mini-ice age. Now you're going to have another one." 

“2011 and Beyond” - What you are seeing, and why - Jan 16, 2010 (Kryon channeled by Lee Carroll) (Text version)

“… So now we've refreshed that which we have said before, a review. You are in the middle of a cycle that will bring cooling to the planet. It is not a heat cycle, but rather a cooling cycle. But it always starts with a short heat cycle. It has been here before. It will come again. It is a long cycle - one generation plus five years. That's how long it's going to last. It starts with the melting of the ice caps, which is far more than any of you have seen in your lifetime or those of your ancestors. It is a cycle whose repetition is thousands of years long, but one that has not yet been recorded to the books of Human record. But it's definitely been recorded in the cores of the ice and in the rings of the trees.

Thousands of years old, it is, and it happens in a cyclical way. It's about water. It starts with that which is the melting of the ice caps to a particular degree, which has a profound effect on the planet in all ways. You can't have that happen without seeing life change as well as Gaia change and you've seeing it already. What happens when you take that which is heavy on the poles [ice] and you melt it? It then becomes cold water added to that which is a very, very gentle and finite balance of temperature in the seas of the planet (1). The first thing that happens is a redistribution of the weight of water on the thin crust of the earth from ice at the poles to new water in the seas. The results become earthquakes and volcanoes, and you're seeing them, aren't you? You are having earthquakes in places that are not supposed to have earthquakes. Volcanoes are coming to life in a way that you've not seen before on a regular basis. There will be more. Expect them.

Is it too much to ask of a Human Being that if you live by a volcano that you know might erupt, maybe you ought to move? Yet there will be those who say, "It hasn't erupted in my lifetime or my parents' lifetime or my grandparents' lifetime; therefore, it won't." You may have a surprise, for all things are changing. That is what is happening to Gaia. ….“

"Recalibration of Knowledge" – Jan 14, 2012 (Kryon channelled by Lee Carroll) - (Subjects: Channelling, God-Creator, Benevolent Design, New Energy, Shift of Human Consciousness, (Old) Souls, Reincarnation, Gaia, Old Energies (Africa,Terrorists, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela ... ), Weather, Rejuvenation, Akash, Nicolas Tesla / Einstein, Cold Fusion, Magnetics, Lemuria, Atomic Structure (Electrons, Particles, Polarity, Self Balancing, Magnetism, Higgs Boson), Entanglement, "Life is necessary for a Universe to exist and not the other way around", DNA, Humans (Baby getting ready, First Breath, Stem Cells, Embryonic Stem Cells, Rejuvenation), Global Unity, ... etc.) - (Text Version)

"...The Weather... Again

My partner has been "against the grain" in the past years, giving you what I have channelled about the weather. Is it global warming? No. Is it going to get better? No. This is a two-generation cycle. There will continue to be earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes, and storms. This is a recalibration of life in the ocean, and humanity must go through this in any way they can. This is a cycle, a known and expected one, but since you haven't gone through it in modern times, it's not well understood yet. ..."