In a Land of Volcanoes, Trying to Reduce the Risks

Jakarta Globe, May 03, 2014

A man and boy ride past Mount Sinabung in Berastepu village, Karo,
North Sumatra, on Feb. 3, 2014. (EPA Photo/Dedi Sahputra)

Millions of Indonesians who live near the country’s more than 130 active volcanoes are constantly having to decide whether to evacuate or not. Supporting “volcano cultures” with up-to-date evidence and strong leaders is one way to save more lives, say experts.

“Communities balance the risks from the volcanoes with the benefits from living in such a fertile area,” Kate Crowley, the disaster risk reduction adviser for the Catholic Aid Agency for UK and Wales (CAFOD), told IRIN.

According to Crowley and other experts, while some culturally accepted warnings serve to protect communities across the archipelago nation, others – such as the belief that rituals appease the supernatural entities that control eruptions – can also create a false sense of security.

“Communities have their own early warning systems based on tradition and natural signs, and [it can be a struggle for them] to believe scientific monitoring,” said Anat Prag, a supporting officer for Caritas, a humanitarian NGO in Indonesia.

More than 76,000 people fled their homes and more than 200,000 were affected when Mount Kelud on Indonesia’s densely populated Java Island erupted in February, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). However, some residents insisted on staying behind.

Mount Merapi, between Yogyakarta and Central Java, is Indonesia’s most dangerous volcano, with eruptions every two to three years sending pyroclastic flows — 815 degrees Celsius sulphuric gases mixed with debris — downhill at up to 240 kilometers per hour.

More than one million people live within a 10-kilometer radius of the summit, putting them at constant risk. Hundreds of lives have been lost due to its eruptions since the 1990s.

But volcanoes also offer a pull factor for farmers. Soil fed by volcanic ash is highly fertile and has attracted settlements on and near the slopes of volcanoes. Pyroclastic flows generally reach 10 to 15 kilometers from the peak; the blasts are most intense within the first 10 kilometers.

Merapi’s regular eruptions are a testing ground for humanitarian interventions — including those attempting to balance local knowledge with technical protection measures.

“Belief systems in Merapi have not yet been interpreted for risk reduction. If people don’t understand… what they are being told, and it isn’t relevant to them, they won’t accept it and they will get killed [by eruptions],” Crowley said.

Limits of local knowledge

Many communities near Merapi believe supernatural entities — or “creatures” — live at the summit of the volcano and control its behaviour. Other beliefs inspire some to conduct rituals such as burying a severed buffalo head near the summit.

“When people go missing, [others in the community] say the creatures, who in their belief offer protection from eruptions, took them, or that [it is because] they didn’t follow the rules or taboos required to make the creatures happy,” explained Crowley, who co-authored a 2012 article which examined local understanding of the Merapi risk, and strategies “produced through hazard experience… [which] can be developed as a coping mechanism for the at-risk communities.

“The people say ‘the creatures will protect us.’ It is a coping strategy because they have created rules or taboos from experience or myth to follow so you don’t get killed. Some are positive and can save lives, whilst others make people more vulnerable,” she added.

Indigenous warning signs include: Smoke plumes (hot gas clouds from the summit’s crater), small earthquakes, the descent of monkeys en masse from the hills, and lightning storms caused by the emission of ash into the atmosphere.

Experts say these represent only some of the signals people need to take seriously in order to stay safe.

For example, in 2006, government officials warned residents of Nargomulyio village, less than five kilometers from Merapi, to evacuate, as the volcano had reached a Level 5 alert (the highest possible). However, locals refused, citing the lack of signals they were familiar with.

“The residents had such deep spiritual relationships with Merapi that they believed it would provide further natural warnings before a major eruption,” said Caritas’s Prag.

Evacuating the cows

People who live around Merapi are farmers; for many, livestock is their sole asset. Evacuating requires leaving everything they own behind, which they are reluctant to do.

“They are extremely poor people and all they have is land, cattle, and homes,” Crowley said.

“While villagers know with 100 percent certainty that if they evacuate, their land will not be farmed and the cow will not be fed, when and to what extent the volcano will erupt is uncertain [and sometimes not believed] so people are often willing to take that risk,” she added.

“Imagine that your entire bank account is a cow tethered in a shed and if that cow starves to death your entire income is lost.”

Some agencies have begun to address livelihood concerns. “People are worried about their cows — who is feeding [them]. They ask, ‘will you take responsibility when our cow is dead because we are in the shelter and can’t feed it?’” said Ahmad Husein, a spokesman for the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) in Indonesia.

He explained that people, after evacuating, often sneak back to their farms while the eruption continues, to feed cows, putting their lives at risk.

To address this dilemma, since 2010 the government has incorporated the evacuation of livestock into the contingency plans of several districts. Cows are transported by truck at the same time as people, according to Iskander Lehman, a Livestock Emergency Guidelines (LEGS) and Sphere humanitarian standards trainer in Indonesia.

“The challenge was finding a suitable evacuation centre for the livestock… [finally] they found out the suitable place — down the hill where the families are,” Lehman said, explaining that the shelters have food and water for the cows, and that families can safely check on them without risking their lives.

‘Volcano heroes’

Experts say developing leaders who can motivate people to act is important.

“Despite early warnings having been given to the public, they [sometimes] have confidence that they are safe because traditional leaders or community leaders in the area do not want to evacuate,” Nugroho explained, pointing to a 2010 eruption of Merapi which killed more than 300 people and forced the evacuation of hundreds of thousands.

That year some communities around Merapi had strong faith in Mbah Maridjan, who had been designated the “gatekeeper” of the mountain by the sultan of Yogyakarta, an influential local religious and political leader. Maridjan refused to evacuate after the eruption, saying he preferred to “die on the volcano,” and influenced dozens of others to do the same, according to local media reports.

The government is trying to combat this by creating “volcano heroes” — leaders whose social position can influence community behavior.

Bas Surono, head of the Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation Center at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, is becoming one such influential hero, according to the IFRC.

“He spreads information on TV and radio, and the reach is good, with roughly 70 million TV and Internet users in Indonesia,” Husein said, adding that because of Surono’s influence, “when the volcanoes start coughing, people [now] start to prepare themselves.”

IRIN

Related Articles:

Residents Around Mt. Kelud Anticipate Eruption as Animals Flee Forest


“2011 and Beyond” - What you are seeing, and why - Jan 16, 2010 (Kryon channeled by Lee Carroll) (Text version)

New Mini Ice Age

“… So now we've refreshed that which we have said before, a review. You are in the middle of a cycle that will bring cooling to the planet. It is not a heat cycle, but rather a cooling cycle. But it always starts with a short heat cycle. It has been here before. It will come again. It is a long cycle - one generation plus five years. That's how long it's going to last. It starts with the melting of the ice caps, which is far more than any of you have seen in your lifetime or those of your ancestors. It is a cycle whose repetition is thousands of years long, but one that has not yet been recorded to the books of Human record. But it's definitely been recorded in the cores of the ice and in the rings of the trees.

Thousands of years old, it is, and it happens in a cyclical way. It's about water. It starts with that which is the melting of the ice caps to a particular degree, which has a profound effect on the planet in all ways. You can't have that happen without seeing life change as well as Gaia change and you've seeing it already. What happens when you take that which is heavy on the poles [ice] and you melt it? It then becomes cold water added to that which is a very, very gentle and finite balance of temperature in the seas of the planet (1). The first thing that happens is a redistribution of the weight of water on the thin crust of the earth from ice at the poles to new water in the seas. The results become earthquakes and volcanoes, and you're seeing them, aren't you? You are having earthquakes in places that are not supposed to have earthquakes. Volcanoes are coming to life in a way that you've not seen before on a regular basis. There will be more. Expect them.

Is it too much to ask of a Human Being that if you live by a volcano that you know might erupt, maybe you ought to move? Yet there will be those who say, "It hasn't erupted in my lifetime or my parents' lifetime or my grandparents' lifetime; therefore, it won't." You may have a surprise, for all things are changing. That is what is happening to Gaia. ….“

Schoolchildren among 14 killed by Indonesia volcano eruption

Google – AFP, 1 February 2014

A resident runs away to escape from hot volcanic ash clouds engulfing

 villages in Karo district during the eruption of Mount Sinabung volcano, on

Indonesia's Sumatra island, on February 1, 2014 (AFP, Sutanta Aditya)

Karo — Fourteen people, including four schoolchildren, were killed Saturday after they were engulfed in scorching ash clouds spat out by Indonesia's Mount Sinabung in its biggest eruption in recent days, officials said.

Dark, searing clouds rolling down the mountain left apocalyptic scenes of ash-covered bodies scattered by a roadside in Sukameriah village, just 2.7 kilometres (1.7 miles) from the volcano's crater, an AFP witness who helped with the evacuation said.

Officials fear there could be more fatalities from Saturday's eruptions, but due to the high potential of lethal heat clouds spewing from the mountain, a search and rescue mission has been grounded, officials said.

Indonesian rescuers recover the body of a 

victim at a village in Karo district following

 eruptions of Mount Sinabung, on Sumatra

island, on February 1, 2014 (AFP, Sutanta

Aditya)

"We suspect there are more victims but we cannot recover them because the victims are in the path of the hot (ash) clouds," said Sutopo Purwo Nugroho, the spokesman for the National Disaster Management Agency.

All 14 bodies have been identified. Four of them were high school students on a sightseeing trip to the volcano on the western island of Sumatra, he added.

"The bodies were in a state where, even though their skin did not peel, their faces were swollen and the tongues were sticking out," an AFP reporter on the ground said.

Three other people -- a father and his son who wanted to pay respects at the graves of their relatives, and a man who came to the village to check his long-abandoned house -- were also trapped and injured by the deadly clouds, Karo district official Johnson Tarigan told AFP.

He said the three were in the intensive care unit of a local hospital.

Thirty thousand people have been evacuated from the area since the volcano started erupting in September.

But some residents had returned home on Friday following advice from the Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation that houses outside the five-kilometre radius from the mountain were safe.

The volcano erupted again on Saturday morning, sending hot rocks and ash up 2,000 metres (16,00 feet) into the air, blanketing the surrounding countryside with grey dust, said volcanologist Kristianto, who like many Indonesians goes by one name.

A giant cloud of hot volcanic ash clouds engulfs villages in Karo district

 during the eruption of Mount Sinabung volcano, on Indonesia's

Sumatra island, on February 1, 2014 (AFP, Sutanta Aditya)

Sukameriah village is located in the red zone, where human activities are strictly banned, but locals often trespassed the restricted area to check on their houses and belongings as well as their crops, officials said.

Nugroho said the evacuation will resume on Sunday.

Mount Sinabung is one of 129 active volcanoes in Indonesia that straddle major tectonic fault lines, known as the Pacific Ring of Fire.

It had been quiet for around 400 years until it rumbled back to life in 2010, and again in September last year.

In August 2013, five people were killed and hundreds evacuated when a volcano on a small island in East Nusa Tenggara province erupted.

The country's most active volcano, Mount Merapi in central Java, killed more than 350 people in a series of eruptions in 2010.

Related Articles:

Deadly Mount Sinabung Eruption Leaves Crisis in Wake

Govt admits to misjudging Mount Sinabung eruption  (Aug 2010)

“2011 and Beyond” - What you are seeing, and why - Jan 16, 2010 (Kryon channeled by Lee Carroll) (Text version)

New Mini Ice Age

“… So now we've refreshed that which we have said before, a review. You are in the middle of a cycle that will bring cooling to the planet. It is not a heat cycle, but rather a cooling cycle. But it always starts with a short heat cycle. It has been here before. It will come again. It is a long cycle - one generation plus five years. That's how long it's going to last. It starts with the melting of the ice caps, which is far more than any of you have seen in your lifetime or those of your ancestors. It is a cycle whose repetition is thousands of years long, but one that has not yet been recorded to the books of Human record. But it's definitely been recorded in the cores of the ice and in the rings of the trees.

Thousands of years old, it is, and it happens in a cyclical way. It's about water. It starts with that which is the melting of the ice caps to a particular degree, which has a profound effect on the planet in all ways. You can't have that happen without seeing life change as well as Gaia change and you've seeing it already. What happens when you take that which is heavy on the poles [ice] and you melt it? It then becomes cold water added to that which is a very, very gentle and finite balance of temperature in the seas of the planet (1). The first thing that happens is a redistribution of the weight of water on the thin crust of the earth from ice at the poles to new water in the seas. The results become earthquakes and volcanoes, and you're seeing them, aren't you? You are having earthquakes in places that are not supposed to have earthquakes. Volcanoes are coming to life in a way that you've not seen before on a regular basis. There will be more. Expect them.

Is it too much to ask of a Human Being that if you live by a volcano that you know might erupt, maybe you ought to move? Yet there will be those who say, "It hasn't erupted in my lifetime or my parents' lifetime or my grandparents' lifetime; therefore, it won't." You may have a surprise, for all things are changing. That is what is happening to Gaia. ….“

THE RELATIONSHIP TO GAIA - April 2010 (Kryon channelled by Lee Carroll)

"The weather you have today, and all the alarming attributes of it, is a scenario of what was scheduled to happen on Earth anyway. I review again that the weather changes you are seeing prophesied by myself, 21 years ago, are not a surprise. The changes are not caused by the pollutants you put in the air. You call it global warming and that's a nice phrase, and perhaps that will get you to put less pollutants in the air – a very good thing. But what you are seeing in the weather shift today was not caused by Humans putting things into the air. It would have happened anyway in about 300 years."

"We've called this process the water cycle, since it's all about water, not about air. The water is the predominant attribute of Gaia and of the weather cycle you're seeing. More predominant is the temperature of it. The cycle is ice to water and water to ice, and has been repeated on this planet over and over and over. It is not new. It is not exceptional. It is not frightening. But it's a cycle that modern humanity has not seen before, and it's a long cycle that is beyond the life span of a Human Being. Therefore, it tends to be overlooked or not seen at all !"

"In the days of the Lemurians, the water level of the Pacific Ocean was almost 400 feet lower, and that's only 50,000 years ago. [Kryon invites science to check this out – the water level at that time.] That was a water cycle working, and the reason it was lower was due to so much of the water being stored as ice. Today you're going through another water cycle that will eventually lead to cooling. The last one was in the 1400s."

"Science sees that at about 1650. As mentioned, they are so slow there is no remembrance that a Human has of them except in past writings and in the rings of the trees. The time span of the changes is so great that environmental record keeping does not exist in the form that it does today. But you can still look at the rings of the trees and at the striations of the rocks and can generally figure out that a few hundred years ago, you had a mini-ice age. Now you're going to have another one." 

IPCC climate report: six things we've learned

The IPCC's long-awaited fifth assessment report says it is 'extremely likely' that humanity is to blame for global warming. What else can we learn from the report?

theguardian.com, Adam Vaughan, Friday 27 September 2013

Nearly dried-up area of the Jialing River, China. The IPCC report warns we

 are likely to surpass rises of 2C by 2100, beyond which dangerous consequences

 including drought, floods and storms are expected. Photograph: Diego Azubel/

epa/Corbis

• Scientists are more certain than ever that humanity is to blame for rising temperatures. The head of the United Nations' World Meteorological Organisation, Michel Jarraud, said "it is extremely likely that changes in our climate system in the past half century are due to human influence." The report says: "Human influence on the climate system is clear. This is evident from the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, positive radiative forcing, observed warming, and understanding of the climate system."

• Concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have increased to levels that are unprecedented in at least 800,000 years. The burning of fossil fuels is the main reason behind a 40% increase in CO2 concentrations since the industrial revolution.

• We're likely to surpass rises of 2C by 2100, the threshold of warming that governments have pledged to hold temperatures to, and beyond which dangerous consequences including drought, floods and storms are expected. "What is very clear is we are not" on the path to keeping temperatures below 2C, said Thomas Stocker, one of the co-chairs of today's report. Global temperatures are likely to rise by 0.3C to 4.8C by the end of the century, the report said.

• Sea level rises are coming. "Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century," says today's report, by a further 26-82cm by 2100, but Stocker said "there is no consensus in the scientific community over very high sea level rises".

• Scientists said claims that the rate of temperature rises in the last 15 years has slowed did not affect the big picture, and temperatures are going up in the long-term. Climate trends "should not be calculated for periods of less than 30 years," said Stocker.

• The amount of carbon the world can burn without heading for dangerous levels of warming is far less than the amount of fossil fuels left in the ground. "The IPCC carbon budget to stay below 2C is 800-880 gigatonnes of carbon (GTC). 531 GTC had already been emitted by 2011. So we have 350 GTC left, which is much less than the carbon stored in fossil fuel reserves," notes our correspondent Fiona Harvey.

Related Articles:

IPCC Headline Statements from the Summary for Policymakers

Arctic ice melt slows down: NASA

Warming 'pause' gives thought for scientists, sceptics

THE RELATIONSHIP TO GAIA - April 2010 (Kryon channelled by Lee Carroll)

New Mini Ice Age

"The weather you have today, and all the alarming attributes of it, is a scenario of what was scheduled to happen on Earth anyway. I review again that the weather changes you are seeing prophesied by myself, 21 years ago, are not a surprise. The changes are not caused by the pollutants you put in the air. You call it global warming and that's a nice phrase, and perhaps that will get you to put less pollutants in the air – a very good thing. But what you are seeing in the weather shift today was not caused by Humans putting things into the air. It would have happened anyway in about 300 years."

"We've called this process the water cycle, since it's all about water, not about air. The water is the predominant attribute of Gaia and of the weather cycle you're seeing. More predominant is the temperature of it. The cycle is ice to water and water to ice, and has been repeated on this planet over and over and over. It is not new. It is not exceptional. It is not frightening. But it's a cycle that modern humanity has not seen before, and it's a long cycle that is beyond the life span of a Human Being. Therefore, it tends to be overlooked or not seen at all !"

"In the days of the Lemurians, the water level of the Pacific Ocean was almost 400 feet lower, and that's only 50,000 years ago. [Kryon invites science to check this out – the water level at that time.] That was a water cycle working, and the reason it was lower was due to so much of the water being stored as ice. Today you're going through another water cycle that will eventually lead to cooling. The last one was in the 1400s."

"Science sees that at about 1650. As mentioned, they are so slow there is no remembrance that a Human has of them except in past writings and in the rings of the trees. The time span of the changes is so great that environmental record keeping does not exist in the form that it does today. But you can still look at the rings of the trees and at the striations of the rocks and can generally figure out that a few hundred years ago, you had a mini-ice age. Now you're going to have another one." 

“2011 and Beyond” - What you are seeing, and why - Jan 16, 2010 (Kryon channeled by Lee Carroll) (Text version)

“… So now we've refreshed that which we have said before, a review. You are in the middle of a cycle that will bring cooling to the planet. It is not a heat cycle, but rather a cooling cycle. But it always starts with a short heat cycle. It has been here before. It will come again. It is a long cycle - one generation plus five years. That's how long it's going to last. It starts with the melting of the ice caps, which is far more than any of you have seen in your lifetime or those of your ancestors. It is a cycle whose repetition is thousands of years long, but one that has not yet been recorded to the books of Human record. But it's definitely been recorded in the cores of the ice and in the rings of the trees.

Thousands of years old, it is, and it happens in a cyclical way. It's about water. It starts with that which is the melting of the ice caps to a particular degree, which has a profound effect on the planet in all ways. You can't have that happen without seeing life change as well as Gaia change and you've seeing it already. What happens when you take that which is heavy on the poles [ice] and you melt it? It then becomes cold water added to that which is a very, very gentle and finite balance of temperature in the seas of the planet (1). The first thing that happens is a redistribution of the weight of water on the thin crust of the earth from ice at the poles to new water in the seas. The results become earthquakes and volcanoes, and you're seeing them, aren't you? You are having earthquakes in places that are not supposed to have earthquakes. Volcanoes are coming to life in a way that you've not seen before on a regular basis. There will be more. Expect them.

Is it too much to ask of a Human Being that if you live by a volcano that you know might erupt, maybe you ought to move? Yet there will be those who say, "It hasn't erupted in my lifetime or my parents' lifetime or my grandparents' lifetime; therefore, it won't." You may have a surprise, for all things are changing. That is what is happening to Gaia. ….“

"Recalibration of Knowledge" – Jan 14, 2012 (Kryon channelled by Lee Carroll) - (Subjects: Channelling, God-Creator, Benevolent Design, New Energy, Shift of Human Consciousness, (Old) Souls, Reincarnation, Gaia, Old Energies (Africa,Terrorists, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela ... ), Weather, Rejuvenation, Akash, Nicolas Tesla / Einstein, Cold Fusion, Magnetics, Lemuria, Atomic Structure (Electrons, Particles, Polarity, Self Balancing, Magnetism, Higgs Boson), Entanglement, "Life is necessary for a Universe to exist and not the other way around", DNA, Humans (Baby getting ready, First Breath, Stem Cells, Embryonic Stem Cells, Rejuvenation), Global Unity, ... etc.) - (Text Version)

"...The Weather...

My partner has been "against the grain" in the past years, giving you what I have channelled about the weather. Is it global warming? No. Is it going to get better? No. This is a two-generation cycle. There will continue to be earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes, and storms. This is a recalibration of life in the ocean, and humanity must go through this in any way they can. This is a cycle, a known and expected one, but since you haven't gone through it in modern times, it's not well understood yet. ..."

"Recalibration of Free Choice"–  Mar 3, 2012 (Kryon Channelling by Lee Caroll) - (Subjects: (Old) Souls, Midpoint on 21-12-2012, Shift of Human Consciousness, Black & White vs. Color, 1 - Spirituality (Religions) shifting, Loose a Pope “soon”, 2 - Humans will change react to drama, 3 - Civilizations/Population on Earth,  4 - Alternate energy sources (Geothermal, Tidal (Paddle wheels), Wind), 5 – Financials Institutes/concepts will change (Integrity – Ethical) , 6 - News/Media/TV to change, 7 – Big Pharmaceutical company will collapse “soon”, (Keep people sick), (Integrity – Ethical)  8 – Wars will be over on Earth, Global Unity, … etc.) - (Text version)

“…  4 - Energy (again)

The natural resources of the planet are finite and will not support the continuation of what you've been doing. We've been saying this for a decade. Watch for increased science and increased funding for alternate ways of creating electricity (finally). Watch for the very companies who have the most to lose being the ones who fund it. It is the beginning of a full realization that a change of thinking is at hand. You can take things from Gaia that are energy, instead of physical resources. We speak yet again about geothermal, about tidal, about wind. Again, we plead with you not to over-engineer this. For one of the things that Human Beings do in a technological age is to over-engineer simple things. Look at nuclear - the most over-engineered and expensive steam engine in existence!

Your current ideas of capturing energy from tidal and wave motion don't have to be technical marvels. Think paddle wheel on a pier with waves, which will create energy in both directions [waves coming and going] tied to a generator that can power dozens of neighborhoods, not full cities. Think simple and decentralize the idea of utilities. The same goes for wind and geothermal. Think of utilities for groups of homes in a cluster. You won't have a grid failure if there is no grid. This is the way of the future, and you'll be more inclined to have it sooner than later if you do this, and it won't cost as much….”

Warming 'pause' gives thought for scientists, sceptics

Google – AFP, Richard Ingham (AFP), 24 Sep 2013

Remains of dead trees, due to rising sea levels, are pictured on May 7,

2013, on the beach in northern Senegal (AFP/File, Seyllou)

PARIS — A slowdown in warming that has provided fuel for climate sceptics is one of the thorniest issues in a report to be issued by UN experts on Friday.

Over the past 15 years, the world's average surface temperature rose far slower than many climate models have predicted.

According to projections, global warming should go in lockstep with the ever-rising curve of heat-trapping carbon emissions.

But in recent years, warming has lagged. So, where has the missing heat gone?

For climate sceptics, the answer is clear. Either the computer models used to project temperature rise are flawed, or man-made global warming is just a green scam, they say.

Swedish Environment Minister Lena Ek,

 Thomas Stocker and Dahe Qin of the

 IPCC in Stockholm, Sweden, 

September 23, 2013 (AFP/File,

Bertil Enevag Ericson)

The report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will confirm warming has recently slowed.

The document, being debated line-by-line in Stockholm, is the first volume of a vast trilogy that will be released by the Nobel-winning group over the coming months, and only its fifth overview in a quarter of a century.

Over the past 50 years, the mean global temperature rise was 0.12 degrees Celsius (0.2 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade, slowing to an average 0.05 C (0.09 F) per decade over the past 15 years.

Half of the slowdown could be attributed to volcanic eruptions, whose particles reflect sunlight, and a bigger-than expected drop in heat from the Sun's changing activity cycle, said a summary of the report.

The other half is attributed to a "cooling contribution from internal variability".

Laurent Terray with the French computer modelling agency Cerfacs said the term is used to explain a shift in the way heat is distributed between land, sea and air.

Still unclear is what causes the variation or determines its duration.

"We know that this kind of episode, of a decadal length or thereabouts, can occur once or twice a century," said Terray.

"If it (the present one) continues for two more decades, we may start to think that the computer models are underestimating internal variability."

New research by Britain's Met Office suggests the "missing" heat, or some of it, is being transferred from the ocean surface to the deeps.

Temperatures at depths below 3,000 metres (10,000 feet) have been rising since the 1990s, implying a source of heat-trapping today will contribute to warming tomorrow.

A massive ash clouds rise from the crater

 of the Mount Sinabung volcano during

 a fresh eruption on September 17,

2013 (AFP/File, Ade Sinuhaji)

Governments, which have the right to vet and amend the summary but not the main text on which it is based, are looking with concern at the brief section on the warming pause.

This reflects jitters after the IPCC's last big report in 2007 was shown to contain several background errors, denting the agency's credibility.

The panel's main conclusions were not affected but the mistakes were a windfall for sceptics.

Together with the 2008 financial crisis and the disastrous 2009 Copenhagen UN climate summit, this almost sent global warming into political limbo.

In comments of the IPCC summary draft, China, India and Norway want to know why the section dealing with the warming pause fails to refer to the role of the deep ocean.

Others complain the text is dangerous gobbledegook.

"This is an example of providing a bunch of numbers, then leave them up in the air without a concrete conclusion," says an angry US objection seen by AFP.

"(...) [T]he way it is written, it may set itself up for misleading conclusions."

Some countries take the opposite line.

Hungary says an anomaly that has lasted 15 years -- a blink of an eye on the geological timescale -- is too short and laden with unknowns to even rate a mention.

Illustration: a slowdown in global warming

 has led sceptics to say the theory of

 man-made global warming is a scam

(AFP/File, Giuseppe Cacace)

The controversy touches on the sensitive issue of scientific uncertainty.

To scientists, admitting to uncertainty is not merely honest but entirely legitimate -- something to be acknowledged and debated, to be rejected or overcome.

But admitting to uncertainty is often misunderstood by the outside world and, says Andreas Levermann of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) near Berlin, exploited by sceptics.

"They can't stop physical reality, but they are slowing down" tougher action on carbon emissions, he said in a phone interview.

Alden Meyer, with the US environment group the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), urged the IPCC draft to spell out what is known about the warming pause.

"Otherwise, the denialists will claim that the IPCC's silence on this issue shows that global warming isn't as serious as scientists thought," he said in an email.

"The recent slowdown in temperature increases isn't unprecedented, and should be seen as a 'speed bump' on the way to a warmer world."

Related Articles:

Why has global warming stalled?

THE RELATIONSHIP TO GAIA - April 2010 (Kryon channelled by Lee Carroll)

New Mini Ice Age

"The weather you have today, and all the alarming attributes of it, is a scenario of what was scheduled to happen on Earth anyway. I review again that the weather changes you are seeing prophesied by myself, 21 years ago, are not a surprise. The changes are not caused by the pollutants you put in the air. You call it global warming and that's a nice phrase, and perhaps that will get you to put less pollutants in the air – a very good thing. But what you are seeing in the weather shift today was not caused by Humans putting things into the air. It would have happened anyway in about 300 years."

"We've called this process the water cycle, since it's all about water, not about air. The water is the predominant attribute of Gaia and of the weather cycle you're seeing. More predominant is the temperature of it. The cycle is ice to water and water to ice, and has been repeated on this planet over and over and over. It is not new. It is not exceptional. It is not frightening. But it's a cycle that modern humanity has not seen before, and it's a long cycle that is beyond the life span of a Human Being. Therefore, it tends to be overlooked or not seen at all !"

"In the days of the Lemurians, the water level of the Pacific Ocean was almost 400 feet lower, and that's only 50,000 years ago. [Kryon invites science to check this out – the water level at that time.] That was a water cycle working, and the reason it was lower was due to so much of the water being stored as ice. Today you're going through another water cycle that will eventually lead to cooling. The last one was in the 1400s."

"Science sees that at about 1650. As mentioned, they are so slow there is no remembrance that a Human has of them except in past writings and in the rings of the trees. The time span of the changes is so great that environmental record keeping does not exist in the form that it does today. But you can still look at the rings of the trees and at the striations of the rocks and can generally figure out that a few hundred years ago, you had a mini-ice age. Now you're going to have another one." 

“2011 and Beyond” - What you are seeing, and why - Jan 16, 2010 (Kryon channeled by Lee Carroll) (Text version)

“… So now we've refreshed that which we have said before, a review. You are in the middle of a cycle that will bring cooling to the planet. It is not a heat cycle, but rather a cooling cycle. But it always starts with a short heat cycle. It has been here before. It will come again. It is a long cycle - one generation plus five years. That's how long it's going to last. It starts with the melting of the ice caps, which is far more than any of you have seen in your lifetime or those of your ancestors. It is a cycle whose repetition is thousands of years long, but one that has not yet been recorded to the books of Human record. But it's definitely been recorded in the cores of the ice and in the rings of the trees.

Thousands of years old, it is, and it happens in a cyclical way. It's about water. It starts with that which is the melting of the ice caps to a particular degree, which has a profound effect on the planet in all ways. You can't have that happen without seeing life change as well as Gaia change and you've seeing it already. What happens when you take that which is heavy on the poles [ice] and you melt it? It then becomes cold water added to that which is a very, very gentle and finite balance of temperature in the seas of the planet (1). The first thing that happens is a redistribution of the weight of water on the thin crust of the earth from ice at the poles to new water in the seas. The results become earthquakes and volcanoes, and you're seeing them, aren't you? You are having earthquakes in places that are not supposed to have earthquakes. Volcanoes are coming to life in a way that you've not seen before on a regular basis. There will be more. Expect them.

Is it too much to ask of a Human Being that if you live by a volcano that you know might erupt, maybe you ought to move? Yet there will be those who say, "It hasn't erupted in my lifetime or my parents' lifetime or my grandparents' lifetime; therefore, it won't." You may have a surprise, for all things are changing. That is what is happening to Gaia. ….“

"Recalibration of Knowledge" – Jan 14, 2012 (Kryon channelled by Lee Carroll) - (Subjects: Channelling, God-Creator, Benevolent Design, New Energy, Shift of Human Consciousness, (Old) Souls, Reincarnation, Gaia, Old Energies (Africa,Terrorists, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela ... ), Weather, Rejuvenation, Akash, Nicolas Tesla / Einstein, Cold Fusion, Magnetics, Lemuria, Atomic Structure (Electrons, Particles, Polarity, Self Balancing, Magnetism, Higgs Boson), Entanglement, "Life is necessary for a Universe to exist and not the other way around", DNA, Humans (Baby getting ready, First Breath, Stem Cells, Embryonic Stem Cells, Rejuvenation), Global Unity, ... etc.) - (Text Version)

"...The Weather... Again

My partner has been "against the grain" in the past years, giving you what I have channelled about the weather. Is it global warming? No. Is it going to get better? No. This is a two-generation cycle. There will continue to be earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes, and storms. This is a recalibration of life in the ocean, and humanity must go through this in any way they can. This is a cycle, a known and expected one, but since you haven't gone through it in modern times, it's not well understood yet. ..."